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EUR/USD Forex Breakout Below 3 Month Trading Range
The EUR/USD daily Forex chart has a big bear trend bar so far today. It is a breakout below a 3 month trading range and a resumption of the May bear trend.
The EUR/USD daily Forex chart broke below the 3 month trading range today. For the past several weeks, I said that there would probably be a breakout within a couple of weeks because the daily chart worked its way into a triangle apex. Last week, I said that the 5 consecutive bear days made a bear breakout likely. Today is the breakout. The bigger a bear day the bears get today and the more it closes on its low, the more likely the breakout will succeed. In addition, if there are follow-through bear days over the next few days, the odds will favor a 300 pip measured move down.
If the bulls get a strong bull trend day in the next couple of days and then additional bull days, the breakout will fail. They have a 40% chance of success at the moment.
A big breakout from an extended trading range changes the market from a trading range to a trend. That increases the odds of more trend days over the next week or more. Therefore, day traders will be more willing to hold onto swing trades for more pips.
Overnight EUR/USD Forex trading
Every trend has pauses. When there is a trading range on the 5 minute chart, day traders will scalp. The 5 minute chart has been in a 40 pip range for the past 8 hours, which is a scalper’s market. However, day traders will be more willing to swing part of their shorts because of the new bear trend on the daily chart.
